Ben Bernanke “won’t feel terrific”

"My best guess is that we'll have a continued recovery, but it won't feel terrific. And the reason it won't feel terrific is that it's not going to be fast enough to put back eight million people who lost their jobs within a few years."
– BEN S. BERNANKE, chairman of the Federal Reserve.

  • Gianluca Bai |

    And my best guess is that it’s impossible to drive a chaotic system using conventional models.
    In other words, the numbers of variables that now interacts in a non linear way, because of the globalization too, contributes to determine a strong non linear dynamics to economy that is not possible to measure and manage in a parametric way. But, at the moment, I see that biggest economists continue to use a parametric approach, otherwise a full dynamic and non linear model.
    Economy during globalization is facing as one of the more complex systems because of non linear interactions that can act in a chaotic way, and in this hypothesis and scenario, only a full systemic approach is possible.
    So it’s not so difficult to forecast that the effect of an action could be not so fast enough to recover the situation, because the action is performed on a sub group of parameters and not on the dynamic state, that continue to evolve in his rule.
    To be able to drive and manage in this environment, physics and engineering teach us that it is due to perform a multi step forecast, and to drive the system in some entrainment region where the system is identified to be controllable.
    If we continue to approach at single step forecast or worst at parameter adjustment, we will be completely on the hands of chance, or, for those lucky that believe, in Good. And pray.

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